Fourth Year Student Multimedia University of Kenya.
BSC Mathematics(Major Applied Mathematics) and Computer Science;
CISCO N+,Computer Applications,Blogger,Freelance ICT Journalist;
When I came across this article from Princeton University written by John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering,I couldn't amaze at how they captured my thoughts and worry exactly.
A friend of mine great computer scientist from Kenyatta University asked me earlier to do a research on future dominance of facebook,I did all the research but I realized those had been the same arguments other social sites which so far have now deteriorated hard.
The study uses standard epidemiological models dealing with disease lifespans and dynamics. By simply going to ‘Google Trends’ for freely available search statistics, Cannarella and Spechler are able to make a diagram of the different phases a social networking site goes through, which very closely match that of a disease e.g. ‘adoption’, ‘abandonment’ phases.
The researchers first used the number of search queries for MySpace, a similar popular site which experienced a steep rise and an even steeper decline. An updated version of their formula, including the phases, was then applied to Facebook.
Facebook reignited a new from of socialization.The satisfaction that people get from logging into social sites should be a relaxation from their normal life.That's what facebook used to be at the peak of 2010.A daily job,then finally in the evening while in traffic,one updates how his or her day was.But with upsurge of users have come a transfer of the normal life to facebook.A new form of usage where everyone from employer to employee are users and have mutual friends;The boss can view the updates of employees and privacy is now of great concerns.We had been the younger age that was so enthusiastic about facebook,but after six years of usage now and only twenty one years of age I already feel the pressure not to deactivate my account(who knows) but maybe leave it domant there for a while:testing waters.In the meantime I'm using whatsapp ,twitter linkedin,skilpages,gtalk,to keep in touch avoiding the facebook 'overpopulation'.
I agree with the Princeton minds and as some would argue we are only mathematicians and not sociologists or psychologists,they must remember that facebook was also created by not a psychologist nor sociologist.
Every three out of five users who were my friends in 2009 have now gone dormant.They have not deactivated their accounts but rather resorted to non-firsthand socialization,where they avoid logging in and only do so when it is necessary,maybe talk to a relative(since all relatives are nowadays facebook users).In fact soon we are seeing families forming groups and pages;'The Ouma family open group',It will not be a surprise.Its human nature.
The integration of many apps both mobile and PC within Facebook environment has made privacy an issue of concern.The photos you upload can be seen by all mutual friend of your friend who comments or likes it.The Graph search has even made it easier for any relative who wants to peruse your profile to find you.This is what the youths are running away from.
The Applied Mathematics used in determination of such trends involve approximation theory (broadly construed, to include representations, asymptotic methods, variational methods, and numerical analysis); and applied probability.
The West trend is likely to be mirrored in other countries .
Research also from http://rt.com/news/facebook-disease-die-decline-083/
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Death-of-Facebook-predicted-as-more-youngsters-log-out/
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