FACEBOOK DECLINE;WHY YOUTHS ARE ABANDONING THE GIANT OF SOCIAL SITES

Cavin Ouma;
Fourth Year Student Multimedia University of Kenya.
BSC Mathematics(Major Applied Mathematics) and Computer  Science;
CISCO N+,Computer Applications,Blogger,Freelance ICT Journalist;

When I came across this article from Princeton University written by John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler of the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering,I couldn't amaze at how they captured my thoughts and worry exactly.
A friend of mine great computer scientist from Kenyatta University asked me earlier to do a research on future dominance of facebook,I did all the research but I realized those had been the same arguments other social sites which so far have now deteriorated hard.
The study uses standard epidemiological models dealing with disease lifespans and dynamics. By simply going to ‘Google Trends’ for freely available search statistics, Cannarella and Spechler are able to make a diagram of the different phases a social networking site goes through, which very closely match that of a disease e.g. ‘adoption’, ‘abandonment’ phases.
The researchers first used the number of search queries for MySpace, a similar popular site which experienced a steep rise and an even steeper decline. An updated version of their formula, including the phases, was then applied to Facebook.
Facebook reignited a new from of socialization.The satisfaction that people get from logging into social sites should be a relaxation from their normal life.That's what facebook used to be at the peak of 2010.A daily job,then finally in the evening while in traffic,one updates how his or her day was.But with upsurge of users have come a transfer of the normal life to facebook.A new form of usage where everyone from employer to employee are users and have mutual friends;The boss can view the updates of employees and privacy is now of great concerns.

We had been the younger age that was so enthusiastic about facebook,but after six years of usage now and only twenty one years of age I already feel the pressure not to deactivate my account(who knows) but maybe leave it domant there for a while:testing waters.In the meantime I'm using whatsapp ,twitter linkedin,skilpages,gtalk,to keep in touch avoiding the facebook 'overpopulation'.

I agree with the Princeton minds and as some would argue we are only mathematicians and not sociologists or psychologists,they must remember that facebook was also created by not a psychologist nor sociologist.
Every three out of five users who were my friends in 2009 have now gone dormant.They have not deactivated their accounts but rather resorted to non-firsthand socialization,where they avoid logging in and only do so when it is necessary,maybe talk to a relative(since all relatives are nowadays facebook users).In fact soon we are seeing families forming groups and pages;'The Ouma family open group',It will not be a surprise.Its human nature.

The integration of many apps both mobile and PC within Facebook environment  has made privacy an issue of concern.The photos you upload can be seen by all mutual friend of your friend who comments or likes it.The Graph search has even made it easier for any relative who wants to peruse your profile to find you.This is what the youths are running away from.

The Applied Mathematics used in determination of such trends involve approximation theory (broadly construed, to include representations, asymptotic methods, variational methods, and numerical analysis); and applied probability.

The West trend is likely to be mirrored in other countries .

Research also from http://rt.com/news/facebook-disease-die-decline-083/
            http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Death-of-Facebook-predicted-as-more-youngsters-log-out/

ONE FOR THE ROAD

The spirit of brotherhood and sisterhood Campus style;

May 2012,Multimedia University had organized a” Welcome Back” party for those of us who had spent way almost five months in the name of long holiday. Not a fan of these Campus organized parties due to familiarity of faces I had declined to go.

Circumstances would turn good when my friend from Meru University arrived late in the evening and said why not.We arrived at Kiss50 club Rongai around 11 pm. The energy was contagious and the place was so full. Well I came to enjoy myself,” Waiter!, Bring  one Napoleon and Two Guinness ,”I ordered. Well that added to what my friend and his girlfriend hard ordered would surely” Fill the table” as clubbers like to call it. We would let the Freshers take the floor and sweat ,Oh I already had done that in my first year, when you would only buy one 300ml soda and dance with it till morning.

The joy and party mood that comes with sharing a table with friends is you’ll never run dry. I mean not in your pockets but the bottles. By 1 AM I already had outdone my Napoleon and made a great football manager out of the Guinness’s. I stood up to do my normal Drunkard exercise :Stand on one leg, to see if I was still energetic (at least enough for another spree). Wow my energy was even surprising me. My friend had already gone to hit the dance floor with his ‘Chiquita’ ,poor single I.  I went to the back of the club; well this place is an open air and so relaxed from the indoor .And there was ‘Simba’ this tall friend of mine.”Wagwasi!”as he used to call me, he shouted”kuja pewa yako,“:’come take yours’.I had joined the table and two more pilsner ice were staring at me. This was going to be  a night and a half.

By now I didn’t have to test my strength again. Looking at the adjacent table, and there seated was the VC,I mean Vice Chairman.I insisted ‘Ozero must buy alcohol”. Then memories became invivid ,a little of my friend carrying me to lie on the chair, some guys borrowing me money to refund. One friend for the road, My friend from the land of miraa came and dragged me to a taxi.

I woke up around noon the next day. The walk of shame, the puke on my clothes, the mud could tell it all. I look at that day as the day I would have ended. 

University is fun, have the fun as long as you know you have those friends watching your back.If he is willing to buy you a drink or two,he must be ready to carry you back to safety when your body demands.

When I hear of fellow comrades from Kenyatta University dying in unclear circumstances while raving at Thika and adjacent clubs. It saddens me. Always have that one friend for the road, that who’ll slap some sense into you as you enter the big tyred cars of strangers .Be a one for the road for a friend of yours. Comrades must take care of each other. I personally don’t know how I would break news of a friend’s demise while we went raving with him. I urge you not to be a brother’s keeper but a BROTHER’S MAKER.